Stangeland.qxp 28/10/08 12:54 pm Page 26
Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Can Be Reduced by 85% by 2050
Figure 2: Share of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reductions from the
from power plants and transported through pipelines to safe
Business as Usual Scenario in 2050
geological storage sites. CCS can also be implemented at large
industrial plants such as refineries and plants for the production of
Lifestyle change 10%
Land-use change 11%
steel, cement and ammonia. In the Bellona scenario, CCS is
Efficiency 24%
implemented at all remaining fossil energy power plants by 2050.
Non-CO
2
reduction 11%
Renewable
Generate Carbon-negative Power
energy 13% CCS can be used to generate power with a net negative climate
impact. In such a carbon-negative process, CO
2
is first absorbed
from the atmosphere through the production of modern biomass
Carbon capture and
such as algae. Production will be limited to non-agricultural land so
storage 13%
as to not compete with food and feed production. The resulting
Carbon-negative
energy 18% biomass is used to generate power in modern power plants fitted
with CCS, achieving a net negative emission. Carbon-negative
Figure 3: Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in 2005, in a Business as
Usual Scenario in 2050 and in the Bellona Scenario in 2050
power is already being implemented at some locations, and given an
adequate development and demonstration effort, a large emission
35
2005
reduction from carbon-negative power is feasible by 2050. In the
-eq/yr)
30 Business as usual 2050
2
Bellona scenario, carbon-negative power makes the power
25 Bellona scenario 2050
generation sector a net negative emitter.
20
15
10 Phase Out Nuclear Energy
5
Nuclear power production does not lead to any direct GHG emissions,
0
and substituting fossil-fuelled power plants with nuclear power has
GHG emissions (Gigaton CO
- 5
Power Industry Transport Residential, Land use Non-CO
2
been suggested as a solution to global warming. However, serious
services and GHG
agriculture
problems with nuclear power exist, including nuclear waste handling,
the risk of nuclear accidents and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
GHG = greenhouse gas.
Until these significant problems are solved, using nuclear power as a
efficiency and shifting to clean energy carriers such as electricity, solution to combat global warming would be to fight one problem by
hydrogen and liquid biofuels. A sustainable energy supply will require creating another. Therefore, in our scenario nuclear energy is phased
five essential actions by the power sector, as outlined below. out completely by 2050.
Generate Power More Efficiently Start Using Clean Cars, Lorries, Planes, Ships and Trains
There is a great potential for improving energy efficiency in the power Transportation accounts for about 13% of GHG emissions, and most
sector. On average, existing coal-fired power plants convert only 37% business as usual scenarios project a doubling of transport emissions
of the energy in its fuels to useful energy; the rest is lost as heat. For towards 2050. This does not need to be the case; a transport system with
gas-fired power plants, the current average is 50%. By 2050, a global near zero emissions is technically possible. Key components are improved
implementation of state-of-the art power plants could increase these energy efficiency and switching to climate-neutral energy carriers. Hence,
figures to 50 and 63%, respectively. For biomass power plants, which in our 2050 scenario 75% of road transport is carried out by electric
play a prominent role in our 2050 scenario, average efficiency is vehicles, with the remainder running on biofuels and fossil fuels; all
expected to increase from 26 today to 40% in 2050. aircraft run on biofuels; and one-quarter of all ships run on hydrogen fuel
cells, one-quarter on biofuels and half on fossil fuels.
Replace Fossil Power with Clean, Renewable Power
Renewable energy resources such as sunlight, wind, water, biomass Increase Industrial Efficiency
and geothermal energy are naturally replenished. While the Industry accounts for about 12% of global GHG emissions and uses
technical potential for renewable energy is nearly limitless, our about half of all electricity generated. Most important in terms of GHG
ability to transform this potential into usable forms of energy has emissions are the chemicals, cement and steel industries. Increased
historically been limited. Recent technological development energy efficiency is an important measure to reduce industrial GHG
has finally brought a sustainable, renewable energy system within emissions. For example, state-of-the-art motor systems could reduce
reach, both from a technical and an economic perspectiv, but the industrial electricity demand by 12%. Large emission reductions can
transition will take time. In our ambitious scenario, 90% of power also be achieved by improving manufacturing processes and
generation in 2050 will be based on renewable resources, of which increasing recycling. In our scenario, industry emissions are reduced by
hydro-, bio-, wind and solar power are the most important. almost 40% compared with the 2050 business as usual projection.
Clean Up Fossil Energy – Carbon Capture and Storage Use Energy Smarter in Buildings
While a renewable energy system is the ultimate goal, we do not The dominant GHG emission from residential and commercial buildings is
expect this is to be fully achievable by 2050. However, from a energy-related CO
2
. The most important ways to reduce emissions are
climate perspective there is hope. Fossil energy can be made close to reduce primary energy demand by improving energy efficiency and to
to climate-neutral by means of CCS. Here, fossil CO
2
is captured replace fossil heating with renewable heating. In the Bellona scenario,
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EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION – OIL & GAS REVIEW 2008 – VOLUME 6 ISSUE II
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