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Regional Focus – Africa
Africa’s Hydrocarbon Future
a report by
Duncan Clarke
Chairman and Chief Executive, Global Pacific & Partners
Potential oil and gas reserves in sub-Saharan Africa and the Maghreb There are also other candidates for oil production in the longer term:
are promising, with prospects of full realisation in the near to potentially the Central African Republic, Mozambique (still a gas
medium term, towards 2030. Global Pacific & Partners has made player), Ethiopia, Somalia in time and some states in the Sahelian
country-by-country estimates for African oil reserves (with the usual belt. As petro-cartographers know well, a new African oil map is
caveats) based on diverse and informed industry sources. It is rapidly emerging, with fast-growing reserves and oil production,
reasonably certain that proven oil in sub-Saharan Africa currently especially in the Gulf of Guinea, Maghreb and Central Africa, and
totals around 70 billion barrels (bbls). Sub-Saharan Africa’s likely soon elsewhere within the eastern margins. Around 25 states
geopolitical locus and character make it an attractive target for have assessed oil/gas potential but lack proven commercial fields for
further exploration. For the long term, the main prize is sub-Saharan development; these can hardly be written off over the long
potential oil, estimated at up to 80–100bbls. Then there is the exploration cycle still to come. Out of Africa will emerge news of
Maghreb (including the Sahel), with around 55bbls proven and more oil discoveries, larger proven oil reserves and, over time,
potential ranging up to another 50–100bbls. increased crude supply. It will be the same with gas.
Africa is today witness to frequent new basin openings, relatively Africa’s Growing Gas Game
high discovery success, older basin maturations with future At the outset of African exploration, oil was all important. In the last
productive opportunity and second winds for producing or marginal two decades, following North Africa’s lead, gas has mounted a
fields. There exists an increasingly extensive but still young challenge as a significant energy option, exportable product and
deepwater game, increased offshore play testing and widening source for liquefied natural gas (LNG) deals. It is a fast-growing
success in the vast and still-frontier interior basins, many of which segment within hydrocarbons.
are relatively untouched, as found along the eastern margins. The
pre-salt potential in the southern Atlantic (following Brazilian The gas game in Africa is in its relative infancy, but is fast changing
success) is another untapped opportunity for the future. Meanwhile, as a result of rising reserves, new discoveries, LNG/gas-to-liquid
the Rift Valley has shown its promise in Uganda and in Central (GTL) ventures, gas pipeline projects and a swathe of gas–
Africa, while vast resources remain to be exploited in oilsands and independent power producer (IPP) projects. Gas adds to the African
heavy oil (Congo and Madagascar are at an early stage of this cycle). hydrocarbon prize, especially for LNG and cross-Mediterranean gas
supplies, but also for the Atlantic LNG market and perhaps one day
More countries are now recorded as oil-proven producers and net oil even on the east coast.
exporters. Uganda and Ghana, and later Niger, and then
Madagascar, will join this club in due course. Some traditional There is an estimated 500 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas on the
producers will fade by 2030. There will be more reliance on continent and offshore Africa, with the volume increasing with time.
enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and marginal field deals, and more In sub-Saharan Africa, there are many frontier plays and countries
intensive exploitation of old fields to sustain volumes and credible oil that over the next quarter of a century might find more gas and
status. In time, frontiers will become better known. There may be become producers and even exporters, while a new gas leg in coal-
some surprises too. Whatever the future exploration prognosis, there bed methane is afoot in Botswana, South Africa and the Karoo basin
will be more and more oil-producing states in Africa. belt across southern Africa.
As African oil reserves have grown, so too has oil production (now
Duncan Clarke is Chairman and Chief Executive of
around 11 million barrels of oil per day [mmbopd]), a trend that is
Global Pacific & Partners, a private advisory firm, and a
expected to continue to around 12.5mmbopd by 2015 or
leading thinker, writer and speaker on corporate
thereabouts. Sub-Saharan oil producers are widespread and
strategy, geopolitics in Africa and the world oil
industry. With 40 years of experience in economics in
increasing in number, as are their production source zones. Uganda the developing world, and 30 years inside the global
will be a Rift Valley oil producer by 2011, while Niger is set to enter
exploration industry, he has been an advisor to
numerous international oil companies, governments,
production around 2012. One day, others on the East African
national oil companies, multilateral institutions and
margins may join this producer club – Madagascar for one, with its private clients on six continents. Dr Clarke is the author of Crude Continent: The Struggle
existing small heavy oil pilot production at Bemalonga (with Total as
for Africa’s Oil Prize (Profile Books, London, 2008), Empires Of Oil (Profile, 2007) and The
Battle For Barrels (Profile Books, 2007). He received his undergraduate degree from
operator) slated to grow substantially in the years ahead, perhaps to
Rhodes University in Grahamstown, South Africa in 1969, and his PhD in economics
reach around 180 thousand barrels of oil per day (mbopd) later in
from the University of St Andrews, Scotland in 1975.
the coming decade. Congo’s oilsands venture under ENI will add
E: duncan@glopac-partners.com
another 200mbopd to the country’s volumes by around 2015 or so.
© TOUCH BRIEFINGS 2009
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