Raphael_Martins 18/6/09 08:45 Page 14
Raphael Martins
St Paul’s School
Lonsdale Road, London, SW13 9JT
Raphael Martins
We are currently facing a unique challenge in our history. While we would become unstable and unsure as energy availability would be
are starving for energy but lacking the resources to meet the insufficient and severe weather events would disrupt global activity.
projected demand, we are confronted by serious environmental
issues linked to energy extraction that will damage our planet. We The ‘Blueprint’ scenario is not the easiest path to take, yet it is more
rely on it for everything we do today; however, our primary sources effective because everyone would work together to protect our
are finishing and our environment is changing, and something must planet and lives from disintegrating. Governments would invest
be done soon. Shell has been predicting future scenarios since 1950. wisely in ways to improve air pollution, energy efficiency and
In 2008 they arrived with two energy scenarios for the future. One is greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. Time is short, and to
called ‘Scramble’ in which no one wishes to change the status quo, improve our world everyone would co-operate and act
preferring to address short-term problems. The consequence of this is collaboratively. As time progresses, transport would find ‘greener’
that natural disasters, which are bound to occur more frequently, will ways of using the energy it needs, such as the development of
outpace our actions, making us incredibly vulnerable. The other hybrid, electric and hydrogen vehicles. Renewable energy would
scenario is called ‘Blueprint’ and stems from immediate actions that eventually become more accessible and cheaper, and would
will be beneficial in the long term for humanity and the environment. challenge fossil fuels in terms of price. In the end, carbon emissions
would be reduced, especially with new technology such as carbon
There are various factors we must accept today that challenge us in capture and storage.
reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The population is growing at an
astonishing rate. It has doubled since 1950 and will continue to rise. The main problem with the ‘Blueprint’ scenario is that it relies far
The projected world population in 2050 will hit nine billion. Many more heavily on new technologies, especially carbon capture and
developing countries are getting wealthier, thus consuming greater storage. This technology decreases the amount of carbon dioxide
amounts of energy. Examples of countries that are entering an emissions produced by fossil fuels. Like many other new
‘energy-intensive’ phase of economic development include India and technologies, it is still at an early stage of development. Therefore, a
China. As the population increases there will be greater demand for great level of international co-ordination is required so that there is
energy, yet supply will struggle to keep up. Oil and gas are greatly a greater assurance it might work effectively.
used around the world but are becoming dangerously rare. By 2015
the quantity of accessible oil and gas will not match the projected We rely far too much on governments to act when they might as
population growth. On top of all the existing problems, the stress we well be worried with their self-popularity. They prefer quick solutions
are inflicting on our environment is increasing. If we continue to rather than decisions that could re-shape the future towards a better
produce the current amount of carbon dioxide, we could seriously path. The current approach of governments imposing solutions on
threaten human welfare as well as all fauna and flora across the globe. society as a ‘top-down’ answer is unlikely to work. The ultimate
According to David MacKay, the author of Sustainable Energy – outcome to resolve the energy and environment paradox is likely to
Without the Hot Air, we could not supply the energy used per day per be a mixture of old and new sources of energy due to the short time
person with renewable energy only. available to us. A radical approach relying on completely new
technology or reduced use of energy could be catastrophic. It will be
The ‘Scramble’ world would be a place where governments would necessary to use various renewable energy sources as there is no
be faced with two great problems: the lack of security of energy ‘one solution’ or what may be referred to as a ‘silver bullet’.
supply and fluctuating economic cycles. Governments would be However, in the ‘energy mix’ it will be necessary to reduce or
more interested in resolving immediate problems so that they are stabilise the electricity produced by fossil fuels.
able to maintain their reputation among the public; they are also
prepared to make these decisions simple and regional. There would There are various new and old technologies that will aid in solving
be no consistency or unity among governments and nations; each our energy crisis. New technologies such as carbon capture and
would act in different ways. Vehicles would continue to use ‘liquid storage, biomass, biofuels, solar, wind turbines and tidal and wave
fuels’, which depend greatly upon the production and mining of oil; energy are some examples. On the other hand, old energy extraction
however, the resources would gradually become scarce. Energy methods including nuclear, oil, gas and coal will still play a part in
efficiency would be developing only at a meagre rate. Eventually, life the energy mix. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages
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