Purohit_Outsourcing_book_temp.qxd 01/03/2010 16:36 Page 23
Emissions Mitigation Potential of Clean Development Mechanism-built Solar Home Systems in India
Figure 4: Clean Development Mechanism Potential of Solar Home Figure 5: Time Variation of Cumulative Number of Installation of Solar
Systems in the Indian States Home Systems in India and Associated Clean Development Mechanism
Potential Using Logistic Growth Model
3.5
1040
9
3.0
35
8
30
2.5
7
CER (million)
25
6
2.0
520
1.5
4
15
31.0
10
CDM potentional (million CER)
2
Cumulative number of SHS (million)
0.5
5
1
0 0 0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Goa
eralaDelhiBihar
OrissaKAssam
Punjab
Gujarat
Haryana Rajastan
SHS (BAU) SHS (OS) CDM (BAU) CDM (OS)KamatakaJharkhand amil Nadu
est Bengal
T
WChhattisgarh Maharashtra
Uttar Pradish
Andhra Pradish
Madhya Pradish
households people continue to depend on other energy sources, analogy, it is assumed that by 2019 India will achieve 100% rural
chiefly kerosene, for lighting, which is basically a result of the poor electrification. It may be noted that after receiving a reliable electricity
reliability and quality of the existing supply. Therefore, it is assumed supply through the grid, households will no longer buy SHS. However,
users who already have an SHS will use it throughout its useful lifetime.
India, being a tropical country, is
Figure 5 represents the projected time variation of the cumulative
number of SHS and associated CDM potential using the logistic
blessed with plenty of sunshine.
model. Two cases, the business-as-usual (BAU) and the optimistic
scenario (OS), are presented. In the OS it is assumed that, in the past,
if the diffusion of SHS had been driven by market forces instead of by
that due to the irregular supply of electricity in most parts of India, subsidies, the cumulative number of SHS installations would have
rural households that have electricity connections will also use SHS been three times higher than the actual level.
3
It is observed that in
during blackouts. India, even with highly favourable assumptions, the dissemination of
SHS is not likely to reach its maximum estimated potential in another
SHS usually replace kerosene in the rural areas of the country. To 20 years. However, not all of these time periods are relevant for the
estimate the CDM potential of SHS, the small-scale CDM methodology CDM, the current end-point of which is 2012, which may only be
I.A./Version 12 (i.e. electricity generation by the user approved by the longer-lived if post-2012 negotiations retain an emissions-target-
CDM Executive Board of the United Nations Framework Convention on based policy regime. However, CDM could be used as a tool to foster
Climate Change [UNFCCC]) has been used. Currently, SHS-based CDM the dissemination of SHS in India. It could accelerate the diffusion
projects face investment and technology barriers due to prevailing
practices in India, thus justifying the additionality criterion of CDM
projects. For the monitoring of SHS-based CDM projects, two variables Using the development path
need to be verified in order to correctly establish emission reductions
of China as an analogy,
according to small-scale methodology: the number of systems
operational in the field and estimated fuel savings per available system. it is assumed that by 2019
India will achieve 100%
Using the SSC methodology I.A./Version, the CO
2
emissions mitigation
potential of SHS is estimated to be 23 million CERs annually. The state-
rural electrification.
wise break-down is shown in Figure 4. Uttar Pradesh has the
maximum mitigation potential (3.4 million tonnes of CO
2
), followed
by Andhra Pradesh (2.6 million tonnes of CO
2
) and then Maharashtra process. With the current trend for dissemination of SHS in India,
(2 million tonnes of CO
2
), etc. around 2 million SHS could be installed up to the end of first crediting
period in the BAU scenario, whereas in the OS scenario around 6
Diffusion of Solar Home Systems in India million SHS could be installed. Fifteen million SHS are expected to be
The use of SHS within electrified households is still questionable in the installed by 2020, and these would generate more than 3.5 million
near future. It may be that people will no longer use the SHS once they CER in the BAU scenario. In the OS scenario, more than 37 million SHS
receive grid connection. Using the development path of China as an will be installed and would generate around 9 million CER. n
1. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook Annual Report: 2008–2009, Govt. of India, systems under clean development mechanism in India, Energy,
2008, IEA, Paris, 2008. New Delhi, 2009. 2009;34(8)1014–23.
2. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), 3. Purohit P, CO
2
emissions mitigation potential of solar home
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