Chen_Modern Energy Review 01/03/2010 16:41 Page 28
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Renewable Energy Technology Portfolio Planning – Taiwan’s Experience
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ry
st
a report by
ndu
I
Tser-Yieth Chen
1
, George Jyh-yih Hsu
2
and Oliver S Yu
3
1. Professor, Graduate Institute of International Business, National Taipei University;
2. Professor, Department of Management Information Systems and Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University;
3. Honorary Professor, School of Business, National Dong Hwa University, and President and CEO, The STARS Group, California
Taiwan is a small island lacking natural resources; 97.8% of its decision values. Committee members identified the following 10
energy, especially oil, coal and gas, is imported.
1
Taiwan pays high key decision factors and major driving forces in the future
prices to obtain fossil energy, with oil prices often volatile.
2
As a development of renewable energy technologies: policy driving forces
member of the global community, Taiwan cannot avoid issues (government industry policy and energy policy), technology driving
surrounding global warming. Moreover, it is certainly capable of forces (position of renewable energy technology and the developing
advanced research and has successfully developed renewable energy cost of renewable energy) and international driving forces
technology in the past. (international oil price, greenhouse gas reduction requirements,
international eco-issues, the politics of foreign countries and the
Currently, Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) demand for energy). The 10 key decision factors were identified and
monitors the policies of Europe, the US and Japan as benchmarks for
developing a renewable energy plan in Taiwan.
3,4
The results can help
enterprises enter the supply chain of the global renewable energy
Taiwan’s Industrial Technology
industry and can be applied domestically to promote international
Research Institute monitors the
competitiveness among local manufacturers.
5
policies of Europe, the US and
This article analyses technology portfolio robustness under selected
Japan as benchmarks for a
scenarios of renewable energy development in Taiwan.
renewable energy plan in Taiwan.
Develop the Procedures of Technology Portfolio Planning
This study applied the scenario development and technology portfolio
planning methods developed by the Stanford Research Institute.
6,7
grouped as follows: A: political factors such as the Taiwan
Over the last two decades, both methods have been used extensively government energy and industry policies, related policies for the
by SRI International and the STARS Group and have proved effective renewable energy industry and international environmental issues;
in business corporations and government agencies in the US B: technology factors such as breakthroughs in renewable energy
(e.g. Tennessee Valley Authority), Japan (e.g. Mitsubishi Electric technology and the criteria for technology assessment; C: market
Corporation), South Korea (e.g. LG Group), Taiwan (e.g. Ministry of factors such as market demand on the renewable-energy-related
Economic Affairs) and western Europe (e.g. Statoil in Norway and the industry, the development of domestic industry and the
Fiat Corporation in Italy).
8
requirements of the international market; and D: natural resource
factors such as the availability of renewable energy in Taiwan and
The analysis in this study was performed in eight steps (see Figure 1): the supply costs of renewable energy.
identifying the research target; recognising key decision factors;
selecting the axis of uncertainty; specifying and polishing scenarios; These major driving forces were then condensed into three axes of
identifying the technology candidates; measuring the technology uncertainty: global warming, renewable energy technology
candidates through indicators; analysing scenario robustness; and breakthrough and the government’s renewable energy policy. By
completing technology portfolio planning. These eight steps combining various extremes of the three axes of uncertainty,
compromise the framework of the overall scenario analysis involving a eight scenarios were possible. Three plausible yet structurally different
technology roadmap-building process. scenarios – ‘Season in the Sun’, ‘More Desire than Energy’ and ‘Castle
in the Air’ – were selected to explore major future uncertainties in the
The main tasks of the steering committees include scenario external business environment by eliminating those combinations that
development and technology portfolio planning. As Figure 1 shows, lacked internal consistency or that resembled others.
scenario development was performed according to steps one to four,
and the technology portfolio planning was performed according to The Season in the Sun scenario represented an optimistic scenario
steps five to eight.
9
for the renewable energy industry in Taiwan. To prevent further global
warming, future emissions of carbon dioxide are limited to reduce
The Taiwan Experience global warming. Renewable energy technology has progressed rapidly
Regarding scenario development, a Scenario Analysis Committee of and the government has implemented supportive policies. In the More
14 technology, economics and business experts analysed scenarios Desire than Energy scenario, the international community stresses that
of future relationships between alternative technologies and the gradual increase in environmental protection must be balanced
© TOU CH BRIEFINGS 201 0
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