Chen_Modern Energy Review 01/03/2010 16:41 Page 29
Renewable Energy Technology Portfolio Planning –Taiwan’s Experience
Figure 1: Detailed Procedure for Developing a Scenario Analysis Method Figure 2: Technology Portfolio Planning in Season in the Sun Scenario
Incorporating Technology Portfolio Planning
P1 W1
High2. Interview
1. Identify the 3. Select the
experts to
S1
research target uncertainty axis
aquire opinions
P2
W2
P3 P5
P6
B4
Medium
B1
T3
P4B3
Importance T4
4. Specify and polish scenarios
S3
B2
Low
T1
S2W3
G2
T2
6. Measure the 7. Conduct scenario
5. Identify the
technology candidates robustness
Low Medium Hightechnology candidates
through indicators analysis
Risk
W1 = onshore wind energy; W2 = offshore wind energy; W3 = small wind turbine; G1 = geothermal
energy; G2 = incremental geothermal energy; P1 = crystal silicon; P2 = amorphous Silicon (a-Si) film; 8. Complete technology portfolio planning
P3 = copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) film; P4 = cadmium telluride (CdTe) film; P5 = organic dye;
P6 = concentration photovoltaic; S1 = solar heating water boiler; S2 = solar heating air condition; S3 = solar
heating energy; B1 = biomass energy; B2 = anaerobic ferment; B3 = biodiesel; B4 = bioethanol; T1 = wave
with the desired economic growth. The need to control carbon dioxide energy; T2 = tide energy; T3 = ocean current energy; T4 = ocean thermal energy.
emissions still drives the development of the renewable energy
industry, but no major technological breakthroughs have occurred. government initiatives to promote the industry is the lack of external
Renewable energy costs in Taiwan remain higher than those of fossil driving forces and incentives.
energy, despite government support, and the renewable energy
industry is expected to develop slowly. In the Castle in the Air scenario, As for technology portfolio planning, a Technology Assessment and
the threat of global warming has decreased, and the international Planning Committee of 12 technological and policy analysts assessed the
community has reduced environmental protection efforts. alternative technologies and developed a renewable energy technology
Breakthroughs in renewable energy technology have not occurred, portfolio plan. The committee of experts listed 22 technologies from
partly due to reduced government funding to develop and promote six major fields of renewable energy: photovoltaics, wind energy,
renewable energy technology. Another reason for the lack of bio-energy, solar heating, geothermal energy and ocean energy.
3
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