Chen_Modern Energy Review 26/02/2010 11:06 Page 30
Renewable Energy Technology Portfolio Planning – Taiwan’s Experience
As for technology portfolio planning implications for the three technology, as well as on- and offshore wind energy and ocean
scenarios, the renewable energy technologies that conferred thermal energy technology, should be considered. The exceptions are
competitive advantages in the Season in the Sun scenario were solar newly emerging technologies such as cadmium telluride
heater and crystal silicon (see Figure 2). photovoltaics (CdTe) and organic dye. Increased demand balanced
with economic development and energy protection in this scenario
As for on- and offshore wind energy, concentrating photovoltaic, greatly increased bio-energy development, which directly competes
amorphous-silicon film and amorphous-copper indium gallium with food production.
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(di)selenide (CIGS) film, such technologies also scored highly on the
importance measurement and risk measurement scales. For the Castle in the Air scenario, the importance–risk assessment
indicated that, due to the reduced threat of global warming and the
The experts believed that the above renewable energy technologies lack of technical breakthroughs, only mature technologies such
should be given priority technology development. Both the as the solar heating water boiler, developed in the 1980s, remain
importance and risk measurement of the bio-energy technology
cluster was at the medium level. However, some restrictions were still
observed in technology fields. A comparison of bio-energy with fossil
Three plausible yet structurally
energy by energy return on input (EROI) indicator revealed that the
EROI of bio-energy is only 0.8 to 4.0, assuming one input unit of oil
different scenarios were selected
and coal can generate 100 and 80 units of energy, respectively.
to explore major future
However the costs of bio-energy plants include not only their
monetary costs, but also their environmental impact.
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uncertainties in the external
business environment.
In the More Desire than Energy scenario, the importance–risk
assessment indicated that technical difficulties have impeded
development of renewable energy technology. Only the mature high-importance and low-risk. However, with the exception of CdTe
technologies (solar heating water boiler and crystal silicon film) and organic dye, photovoltaic technologies still merit government
ranked high in importance and low in risk and were well-positioned investment to reduce risk and improve importance despite their
for private business investments. However, all other photovoltaic increased risks.
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