Kusiak.qxd_Outsourcing_book_temp.qxd 26/02/2010 10:15 Page 64
Short-term Prediction of Windfarm Power – A Data-driven Approach
Figure 1: Observed and Predicted Wind Power Using Direct Time Series Models
120 B 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
ower (kW) ower (kW)
P P
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136 151 166 181 196 1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106 121 136 151 166 181 196
Test number (10 minutes ahead prediction) Test number (40 minutes ahead prediction)
Predicted power Observed power Predicted power Observed power
C 120
D 120
100
100
80
80
60
60
ower (kW) ower (kW)
P P
40
40
20
20
0
0
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100 109 118 127 136 145
1 10 19 28 37 46 55 64 73 82 91 100 109 118 127 136 145
Test number (1 hour ahead prediction)
Test number (3 hours ahead prediction)
Predicted power Observed power
Predicted power Observed power
Productivity
a19
Accuracy
a19
Flexibility
a19
Expertise
a19
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