Kalowekamo_ Baker_Outsourcing_book_temp.qxd 24/02/2010 10:43 Page 78
Potential of Purely Organic Solar Cells to Reduce the Cost of Photovoltaics
Figure 1: Factors Affecting Manufacturing Cost Market Penetration by Purely Organic Solar Cells
The PV market penetration by POSCs will depend on cost
80
competitiveness with the other TFSCs and crystalline silicon technologies.
)
2
Table 5 shows a comparison of the estimates for POSCs with the
70
projected estimates for other TFSCs and multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si)
60
modules based on previous studies by Smestad et al. and Meyer for
DSSCs, Zweibel
11
for CdTe and Little and Nowlan
12
for mc-Si. There is a
50
very large range in our estimated costs for POSC. The low-end estimate
40
is second lowest to DSSC (1) and the high-end estimate is second
Manufacturing cost (US$/m
highest to DSSC (2). Note that DSSC (1) is the low-cost while DSSC (2)
30
-100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
is the high-cost technology. This wide range reflects the uncertainty in
% change of individual parameter
estimating a process that has not even been perfected in the
labouratory, let alone transferred to industry.
Substrate cost Wage rate Machine lifetime
Interest rate Cell yield
Levelised Energy Cost
Sensitivity analysis on substrate cost, wage rate, machine lifetime, interest rate and cell yield.
The LEC for POSC PV system was estimated. The LEC includes balance of
systems cost (BOS), as well as the amount of sunlight and the lifetime of
Figure 2: Module Cost Sensitivity
the modules. BOS is defined as costs common to all PV technologies, and
2.0 includes land, support structures, wiring, power conditioning, installation
and transportation. Therefore, the total system cost is the sum of module
1.6
and BOS costs. Using a BOS cost of US$75/m
2
, adding this value to the
baseline cost range of between US$48.80/m
2
and US$138.90/m
2
and
1.2
dividing by output gave an installed capital cost (ICC) of between US$2.48
and US$4.28 per peak watt of power output. To convert to LEC, the
0.8
capital cost of an installed watt of PV was amortised over the lifetime of
Module cost (US$/WP)
0.4
the PV module, and divided by the energy produced in a year. A capital
recovery factor (CRF) based on a 10% discount rate and a five-year
0.0
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 lifetime and a 15.5% capacity factor (CF) was used to find the energy
produced in a year by 1 watt of installed PV. This took into account that
% change of individual parameter
PV cells only operate at a fraction of peak power when averaged over the
Substrate cost Wage rate Cell efficiency
course of a year, due to the diurnal cycle, seasonal variation in sun angle
Machine life Cell yield
and cloud cover. The CF was arrived at based on an average location in
Sensitivity analysis on per cent variation of substrate cost, wage rate, machine life and cell yield
the US, i.e. Kansas City with 1,700kWh/m
2
per year, and assumed that
and efficiency.
total system output (in AC) is about 20% less than peak power rating (in
Figure 3: Module Cost per Peak Watt versus Module Manufacturing DC) due to operating temperature, resistance and power conditioning.
Cost per Unit Area
Assuming operating and maintenance costs of US$0.001/kWh, the LEC
was estimated to be between 49 and 85¢/kWh. These costs were found
2.5
to be far from being competitive with other PV systems.
2.0
We recalculated, assuming that research and development into POSCs
1.5
5%
will increase the efficiency and lifetime to an optimistic 15% efficiency
1.0
and a 20-year lifetime. This results in an LEC of between 7 and 13¢/kWh.
9%
15%
Production costs of electricity in the US by source in 2002 are shown and
Module cost (US$/Wp)
0.5
contrasted in Figure 4, alongside the estimated LEC for POSC.
0.0
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
The bar graphs in Figure 4 show that the LEC for POSC at 15%
2
Module manufacturing cost (US$/m )
efficiency and 20-year lifetime is higher than those of conventional
2
electricity. However, the low-end cost of POSC is the same as theThe relationship between module cost and total module manufacturing cost per unit area (US$/m ) at
different cell efficiency levels.
high-end cost for wind and nuclear. This generally means that POSC
cannot economically compete with conventional sources of electricity
between US$48.80 and US$138.90/m
2
, it is found that if efficiency unless there is a charge for carbon emissions. However, at this energy
increases to 15%, the module cost decreases correspondingly from the cost, POSCs are inexpensive compared with other PV technologies
baseline cost of between US$1.0 and US$2.83/Wp to between whose average LEC is 25–50¢/kWh. In fact, under these assumptions,
US$0.33 and US$0.94/Wp. On the other hand, these lower module POSCs would reduce the cost of PV electricity by four-fold.
costs can be achieved if the efficiency is held constant at 5%
and module manufacturing cost reduces to between US$16.18 and Figure 5 shows how the LEC is affected by lifetime, efficiency and
US$46.08/m
2
. Therefore, cell efficiency and manufacturing cost per manufacturing cost. The LEC is plotted against lifetime for two
square metre for POSCs have a significant impact on module cost. different efficiencies and two different manufacturing costs. The
MODERN ENERGY REVIEW VOLUME 2 ISSUE 1
78
Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108