Climate Change Science Rationale for Investment in Clean Energy and the Carbon Markets
a report by Mark Maslin Professor of Climatology, University College London
We all know why we want greater investment in clean energy and more wide-ranging and inclusive carbon markets. But with the continual heckling by climate sceptics and constant questioning by the media, even the most hardened green entrepreneurs will have their doubts. This paper provides a review of climate change science and the business case for dealing with it now rather than in the future. It will also answer questions regarding ‘climategate’ and other supposed United Nations cover-ups. Fundamentally, climate change is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused climate change; with clear evidence for a 0.75°C rise in global temperatures (see Figure 1) and a 22cm rise in sea levels during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007 synthesis report predicts that by 2100 global temperatures could rise by between 1.1°C and 6.4°C; this uncertainty is primarily due to our lack of ability to predict how much greenhouse gas we will emit over the next 90 years. Sea levels could rise by between 28cm and 79cm – more if the melting of Greenland and Antarctica accelerates – during the same period. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts, will increase. In the UK the science has been taken seriously and, uniquely, the UK has introduced the long-term legally binding Climate Change Act. This Act provides a legal framework for ensuring that the Government meets the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% by 2050, compared with 1990 levels. To achieve this, clean energy and the carbon markets will be essential, because only through business and financial innovation will it be possible to change the fundamental way we produce and use energy in the UK.
The Greenhouse Effect
So, let us start at the very beginning with the ‘greenhouse effect’. The temperature of the Earth is determined by the balance between energy from the sun and its loss back into space. Of Earth’s incoming solar short-wave radiation (mainly ultraviolet [UV] radiation and visible ‘light’) nearly all of it passes through the atmosphere without interference. The only exception is ozone, which luckily for us absorbs energy in the high-energy UV band, restricting how much reaches the surface of the Earth as it is very damaging to cells. About one-third of the solar energy is reflected straight back into space.1
Earth would be at least 35°C colder, making the average temperature in the tropics about -5°C. Since the industrial revolution we have been burning fossil fuels (oil, coal, natural gas) deposited hundreds of millions of years ago, releasing the carbon back into the atmosphere, increasing the ‘greenhouse effect’ and elevating the temperature of the Earth. In effect, we are releasing ancient stored sunlight back in to the climate system, thus warming the planet.2
Anthropogenic Climate Change
The first direct measurements of atmospheric CO2 concentrations started in 1958 at an altitude of about 4,000m on the summit of Mauna Loa in Hawaii, a remote site free from local pollution. To extend this record further back air bubbles trapped in ice have been
analysed. These long ice core records suggest pre-industrial CO2 concentrations were about 280 parts per million by volume (ppmv). In 1958 the concentration was already 316ppmv, and has climbed each and every year to reach ~390ppmv by 2010. We have caused a level of pollution in one century that occurred over thousands through the natural waxing and waning of the great ice ages.
According to the IPCC,3 increase in greenhouse gases over the last
150 years has already significantly changed the climate; average global temperatures have risen 0.76°C, and we have seen a sea level rise of over 22cm, significant shifts in the seasonality and intensities of precipitation, changing weather patterns and significant retreat of Arctic sea ice and nearly all continental glaciers. According to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), in the last 150 years the 11 warmest years on record have all occurred in the last 13 years: 2005 was the warmest, followed by 2009, 2007, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2006. The IPCC3
stated that the evidence for global
warming is unequivocal and there is very high confidence that this is due to human activity. This view is supported by a vast array of learned organisations, including the Royal Society and American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Climategate
‘Climategate’ and the other supposed climate change cover-ups reported in the media show a fundamental misunderstanding of
The
remaining energy is absorbed by both the land and ocean; this warms them up. They then radiate this acquired warmth as long-wave infrared or ‘heat’ radiation. Atmospheric gases such as water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are known as greenhouse gases as they can absorb some of this long-wave radiation, thus warming the atmosphere. This effect has been measured in the atmosphere and can be reproduced time and time again in the laboratory. We need this greenhouse effect because without it the
© TOUCH BRIEFINGS 2011
Mark Maslin is a Professor of Climatology at University College London. He is Co-director of the Environment Institute and Head of the Department of Geography at University College London. He is also Co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Auditors Ltd., a company that provides legally compliant land carbon stock and annual flux measurements anywhere on the globe at 250m resolution with the ability to provide data for the last 10 years.
E:
mmaslin@geog.ucl.ac.uk
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Industry Outlook
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