Energy Security Issues in the Middle East
organisations, the world will grow more dependent on oil and natural gas supplies from the Middle East. Furthermore, the region’s long history of producing and exporting hydrocarbon fuels suggests that concerns over interruption of supplies from the Middle East are exaggerated. A close scrutiny indicates that, with a few exceptions, the region has proven a reliable producer and exporter of oil and natural gas.
Socioeconomic and Political Challenges
One of the most cited reasons for reducing dependence on Middle Eastern oil supplies is the concern that Arab producers might repeat the experience of the 1973–4 oil embargo. The events triggered many developments and the consequences of the embargo need to be scrutinised to determine if it can happen again. Stated differently, can oil producers use their petroleum as a political weapon to intimidate and blackmail one or more consumers?
Despite occasional rhetoric by officials from some oil-producing countries, the likelihood of using oil as a political weapon and imposing an oil embargo similar to the 1973 experience is highly unlikely. Not only did the 1973 embargo fail to achieve its political goals, it also substantially hurt the interests of oil producers. Confidence in the Persian Gulf and the broader Middle East as a reliable source was greatly damaged. Major consuming countries allocated massive financial resources to the exploration and development of oil deposits outside the Middle East. A substantial proportion of these investments went to the North Sea and for the next few decades the supplies from the North Sea satisfied part of European energy consumption. Finally, the increasing globalisation of energy markets means that the concept of ‘selective embargo’ or restricting exports to a few consumers is obsolete.
This low probability of another oil embargo, however, does not mean that the non-interruption of oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf should be taken for granted. Other socioeconomic and political challenges need to be addressed. The list includes sanctions; wars and ethnic/sectarian strife; terrorism; closure of the Straits of Hormuz; political instability; and underinvestment.
International Sanctions
Probably more than any other global power, the US has taken the lead in imposing unilateral and multilateral sanctions against oil-producing countries to force them to change their policies. Libya and Iraq had been under such sanctions for most of the 1990s and early 2000s. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has been under strict US economic sanctions that ban US companies from investing in the country’s energy sector and threaten to penalise companies from other countries if they do business with the Islamic Republic. In recent years, the US managed to reach a consensus with other major powers to issue UN economic sanctions against Iran due to a dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme. In early 2011, the international community imposed sanctions on Libya to force a peaceful end to the strife that tore the country. These sanctions do not stop the flow of oil and natural gas from the targeted country, but they limit foreign investment and technology transfer. Eventually, economic sanctions prevent producers from reaching their full potential and reduce oil and gas supplies in the global energy markets.
Wars and Ethnic/Sectarian Strife
In the last few decades, the broader Middle East has experienced a number of wars. These include the 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973 wars between Arab countries and Israel; the Iran–Iraq War (1980–8); the
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